REINZ data for May was released this week and whilst it’s not definitive, it is supportive of the general consensus that prices have bottomed out. Market stats, media commentary, and general market sentiment always follows what is actually happening in real time, so while the consensus from Real Estate agents all across Auckland and around the country is that activity has stepped up again and the competition is heating up, it isn’t in the data yet. The media have picked up on it though and the change in tune over the past few weeks has been pretty obvious. This is what we would expect, and it has created a noticeable increase in home loan applications as many start rushing to get ready to buy amidst the talk that we are well and truly at the bottom of the market.

Very, very interesting times ahead now as we all sit and watch and wait for the turn.

There are a lot of factors at play but the main ones, falling stock levels and a shortage of new listings combined with easier lending, and interest rates peaking at levels which aren’t traditionally super high. Simple economics 101, supply v demand.

I would suggest about 80% of the offers we are receiving are still well below market so purchasers are still quite happy to try it on, but the more times they miss out on properties, the more realistic they will get about what they need to do to win in a multi-offer or auction.

This Week’s Wrap
– The Short Story
– Market Performance
– Listings & Stock Availability
– Auction Results

The Short Story
Prices were essentially flat in May, the volume of sales was still down year on year on the Shore but new listings still can’t keep up leading to falling stock levels. Open homes remain busy despite the weather, activity is high and intent to purchase is strong, however, clearance rates are yet to follow suit on the North Shore.

Market Performance – REINZ data for May 2023
REINZ House Price Index
The REINZ HPI was pretty much flat compared to April across Auckland, the Shore, and the whole country. It fell around half a percent, except on the Shore where it actually grew just over a point. It now sits roughly 23% below the peak across Auckland and 20% on the Shore. Nationwide, that number is 18%.

Median prices nationwide have been the same for 3 months now, and across Auckland and the Shore 2 months.

Median Prices
New Zealand – May $780,000, 0% change from Apr – Peak $925,000 (Nov 21) – 22% above Pre-Covid
Auckland – May $995,000, up 0.5% from Apr – Peak $1,300,000 (Nov 21) – 12% above Pre-Covid
North Shore – May $1.14m, up 0% change from Apr – Peak $1,550,000 (Nov 21) – 1.3% down Pre-Covid

Sales Volumes
Down down down down. But for Auckland less down than we are used to – on the Shore, more of the same. We saw an improvement in volume compared to April, but May is generally stronger than April every year so that was expected.

Days on Market
Strangely this increased, which may suggest more older stock selling as the market warms and new listings wane. Or that actually the market is getting worse, contrary to what we all think we are seeing. I’m picking it’s the first reason though.

Properties marketed well, presented well, and handled well, should still sell well.

Listings & Stock Availability
Still falling, and we expect this to carry on falling throughout winter.

North Shore Stock Levels:
1264 on oneroof.co.nz – Last week 1272
1206 on TradeMe.co.nz –  Last week 1222
1209 on realestate.co.nz – Last week 1222

Auction Results
With all the increased talk of the market bottoming and potentially turning around sooner that expected, FOMO will start to creep back in, and clearance rates will improve. But they haven’t yet!

North Shore:
Last week: 37%
Past 2 weeks: 33%
4 Week Avg: 34%
12 Week Avg: 34%

Ray White:
Past 2 weeks: 39.5%
Active Auctions: 65.1%
Average bidders: 2.3

Please note the North Shore data is made up of the combined public results from Harcourts & Barfoot & Thompson North Shore.

That’s it from me, remember if you ever have any questions please just give me a call.

Have a great weekend!

Kris Cunningham & Team are all Licensed Sales People under the REAA 2008

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UPCOMING AUCTION

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Kris Cunningham & Co.