Monthly Snapshot – 12 August 2022

By kriscunningham | Blog, News, Weekly Market Update | 0 comment | 17 August, 2022 | 0

REINZ data was released this week for July and didn’t unveil any real surprises as the market trend we’ve been experiencing so far this year continued. More on that below.

Some more good articles for you this week. I’ve picked out the more positive ones but in trawling real estate news in general, it’s nice to see even the negative nellies are starting to write less gloomy articles about the market moving forward. All signs point to a better 2023.

Tony Alexander: My pick for when first home buyers will return to the housing market
Housing markets move in cycles. This downturn will not last.

Ashley Church: Will house prices really double again?
Data set provides a whole new insight into how the property market works.

Tony Alexander: The house price headline you won’t believe is coming
The Reserve Bank’s bold prediction may be closer than you think.

Remember when you are reading articles about the property market just take into consideration where they are talking about. If the article is referencing the nation-wide stats, well they tend to lag a few months behind Auckland. The RBNZ has indicated prices need to fall about 15% till they are deemed “sustainable.” Across the country we are now at 10.8% which means a few more months of falling house prices are likely. But Auckland has already hit the mark and now sits 15.6. So the question is will Auckland fall more than predicted, or have we found the bottom?

Whether we have or we haven’t, with interest rates and inflation appearing to have peaked, wholesale rates falling, low unemployment, good wage growth, low stock, CCCFA rules relaxed (marginally) and the crunchiest period of the credit crunch behind us, plus a big backlog of buyers just waiting to jump back into the fold, if we haven’t found the bottom it’s surely just around the corner and the upswing shouldn’t be too far behind. When it does eventually turn, we can expect Auckland to lead the charge as it usually does.

This Week’s Wrap
– The Short Story
– Market Performance
– Listings & Stock Availability
– Auction Results

The Short Story
The July data showed prices were down again, except on the Shore where they grew for the second consecutive month but don’t get too excited as the housing price index showed we are still on a downward trend. Volume is barely half that of last year with just 209 sales on the Shore and days on market slipped again. Stock levels were back up after falling last week so let’s just call them reasonably stable at moderate levels. Our Auction clearance rates for the past 12 weeks are still improving now at 45%, which is nearly double that of Barfoot & Thompson at 24%.

Market Performance – REINZ data for July 22
Median Price & REINZ House Price Index
Median prices faired quite well again on the Shore in July increasing for the second consecutive month to $1.398m, however, the housing price index contradicted this price growth, contracting 3.1% on the shore showing prices are still actually trending down to now sit 12.8% below the peak in November.

Across Auckland the median contracted to $1.1m and the HPI fell 2.65% from June, nation-wide medians fell to $810,000 and the HPI 1.4%.

Sales Volumes
Volume is still through the floor, barely half that of last year with just 209 sales on the Shore down 47% year on year. The same can be said pretty much everywhere it seems, which is no surprise, with Auckland sales volumes down 48.7% and 36.7% across the country.

These are the lowest volumes we have seen in over a decade.

Days on Market
The shore remained at 44 days while Auckland and NZ slipped to 45 and 47 respectively showing properties are still taking a little bit longer to sell. But they are selling!

Listings & Stock Availability
Stock levels have been pretty stable on oneroof.co.nz for the past 6 weeks with around 1470 properties available this afternoon on the Shore. Oneroof actually have more listings and more stock available to choose from than both of the other major real estate portals hence why we have shifted to follow their numbers. They also provide a better product with a better search engine – in my humble opinion.

North Shore Stock Levels:
1394 on TradeMe.co.nz – 1387 last week
1470 on oneroof.co.nz – 1466 last week
1408 on realestate.co.nz – 1403 last week

Auction Results
Our Auction clearance rates are still improving averaging 45% over the past 12 weeks while Barfoot sit at just 26%. It just shows that the corporate/boutique style of auction adopted by Harcourts and pretty much all other major real estate brands where your auctioneer takes a more personal hands-on approach and has the luxury of more time AND the ability to place to vendor bids is proving to be far more successful, especially in this tougher climate.

Harcourts C&C
W/e 24/07 – 36% (5/14)
W/e 31/07 – 46% (6/13)
W/e 07/08 – 40% (6/15)
W/e 14/08 – 29% (2/7) with 6 more to call this Sunday
4 week average 42%
12 week average 45%

Barfoot North Shore:
W/e 24/07 – 18% (3/17)
W/e 31/07 – 8% (1/12)
W/e 07/08 – 33% (6/18)
W/e 14/08 – 44% (7/16)
4 week average 27%
12 week average 26%

Combined 4 Week average: 34%

Auctions with Active Bidders: 80% over past 4 weeks

That’s it for me, remember if you ever have any questions please just give me a call.

Good luck to the All Blacks this weekend, we love you but it looks like you could do with some luck.

Kris Cunningham
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Kris Cunningham & Team
The Cunningham Group | Harcourts Cooper & Co Smales Farm
Marketing Specialists on the Beautiful North Shore
Kris: 029 767 6801 | Office: 027 259 3603

#3 Harcourts North Shore | Top 20 Harcourts NZ & Worldwide
#1 for the North Shore Community SIX Years in a Row 2015-21

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